Why I Think McCain Will Win This Thing

Don't get me wrong; either way, we're electing a figurehead. At the national level, politics in this country increasingly becomes a beauty contest.

All the same, as an observer to this spectacle, I think McCain stands a better shot of getting elected, and for a few reasons, that prospect really, really disturbs me.

Michigan is a toss up: my birthstate's been reliably Democratic since 1992, yet Obama's barely tracking ahead there. If a state with high unemployment, a large black community, and a flourishing college presence doesn't poll strongly for Obama, that's an indicator his crossover appeal isn't terribly strong and that his chances of winning battleground states--let alone Democratic strongholds--are not robust.

The Palinator: if Obama's campaign wasn't taken totally off guard by Sarah Palin's selection as GOP veep, they badly underestimated how significantly she'd change the dynamics of this race. Palin has proved to be an effective speaker and has galvanized evangelicals. She's an exciting, historical choice, and has proven to be absolutely teflon.

Obama is off message: Palin's largely responsible for this. Obama's talked more about her and less about himself, and McCain, ever since the Republican convention. McCain's campaign has dictated the terms and conditions of the discussion ever since leaving Minnesota.

McCain is leading or closing in polls: with a rotten housing market, high gas prices, rising unemployment, and an unpopular war, the Republican brand should be in tatters. Instead, it's proven remarkably resilient. Obama's lead over McCain has all but disappeared.

In short, none of this bodes well for Obama. Yes, Democrats will make gains in Congress and in gubernatorial races; this may be the one bleary "holding our own" cliche the donkeys use to console themselves in November. But barring an October surprise, major gaffe, or outstanding performances in the debates, I don't see Barack closing the deal. Maybe I'm wrong--I hope I am, for a few reasons I might get into later--but I see McCain winning in a close one.