Is the US national "debt" an illusion?

Mocking You

New member
How did Higher demand come about? It came about because there is more money in circulation.

More Money in circulation -> higher demand -> higher prices.

Hilarious. So in the 70's the demand for oil outstripped supply because the money supply increased? I'm paying $5.99 for a pound of hamburger because the money supply increased? Daft.

You realize that "more money in circulation" = more loans being made. And people buying stuff with the loaned money.

BTW, you're contradicting yourself. Previously you said that money only needed to be printed for inflation to occur; now you are saying it must be in circulation.

Supposing I take out a $100K loan at 5%, then buy shares in a precious metals mutual fund. Will this cause inflation? No, because the money is not in circulation and nothing tangible was purchased.
 

Tinark

Active member
Supposing I take out a $100K loan at 5%, then buy shares in a precious metals mutual fund. Will this cause inflation? No, because the money is not in circulation and nothing tangible was purchased.

It might increase inflation a little bit (compared to a scenario where you didn't take out the loan) - the person who sold you the shares would now have the cash and may decide to spend it.
 

Mocking You

New member
It might increase inflation a little bit (compared to a scenario where you didn't take out the loan) - the person who sold you the shares would now have the cash and may decide to spend it.

Except it would most likely be a brokerage house that sold me the shares, not an individual. And the "product" is an account number on a computer server.
 

Tinark

Active member
Except it would most likely be a brokerage house that sold me the shares, not an individual. And the "product" is an account number on a computer server.

For every buyer there is a seller. Usually the brokerage doesn't own the shares itself, but acquires them for you from a seller. The funds are transferred to the sellers brokerage account, who may decide to withdraw that money.
 

Nimrod

Member
You realize that "more money in circulation" = more loans being made. And people buying stuff with the loaned money.

More loans that shouldn't be. More loans makes prices go higher. Not good for consumer. Good for BIG banks.
Little guy takes a beating. Thanks to you.


I get the impression neither of you two understand where money came from.
 

Nimrod

Member
BTW, you're contradicting yourself. Previously you said that money only needed to be printed for inflation to occur; now you are saying it must be in circulation.

What?

The Big Banks are sitting on hoards of money because the Federal Reserve is paying them interest. It is possible the Fed.R. will change it's policy and start charging the banks for sitting on the money.

The shadow stat shows how the US government changes how it defines what is inflation. Back in 2000, I could have bought a dozen of eggs for $1. Today it is $3.50. In your mind there is no inflation......whatever.
 

Tinark

Active member
More loans that shouldn't be. More loans makes prices go higher. Not good for consumer. Good for BIG banks.
Little guy takes a beating. Thanks to you.


I get the impression neither of you two understand where money came from.

People buying things makes prices go higher - simple supply/demand. The more demand, the higher the price will be. Loans and banking make it easier for people to buy more stuff. Maybe that's why you object to it?
 

Nimrod

Member
http://www.positivemoney.org/2012/0...ing-is-fraudulent-or-it-has-to-be-subsidised/


Now for the real fraud perpetrated by FR banks. This is that they offer a false prospectus, and as follows.

For every £X deposited, banks promise (implicitly or explicitly) to return £X (possibly plus some interest and possibly less bank charges). But at the same time, banks lend on or invest the £X in ways that are not 100% safe. Thus it’s a statistical certainty that sooner or later any given bank will go bust, and not be able to return the £X.

Of course the CHANCES of not being able to return the £X (or all of it) can be reduced by having shareholders or bondholders take a hair-cut or lose everything when a bank makes bad lending or investment decisions. But even then, it’s a statistical certainty that sooner or later all three of the above groups, shareholders, bondholders AND DEPOSITORS will make a loss, or lose everything.

Moreover, another certainty (blindingly obvious from the history of banking) is that however well run a bank, at some stage in its history it will end up being run by a collection of incompetents, if not quasi criminals. There again, depositors will probably lose their money.

Now that wouldn’t matter if banks were open and honest about the risks that depositors run. But they aren’t. Has any bank statement ever said in bold print (like the health warning on cigarette packs in Britain) that “this product may damage your financial health”? No way!!

Of course there may be something in the small print in the agreement between banks and depositors which admits that depositors’ money might not be returned. But that is wholly irrelevant. Fraud exists where there is an ATTEMPT TO DECEIVE. For example if a firm says one thing loud and clear in its publicity, and something totally different in the small print, that is fraud. Moreover it is plain unrealistic (or perhaps I should say bl**dy stupid) to expect the less educated, or pensioners with declining I.Q.s to understand the small print.


Source: Bank of England statistical database. Andrew Haldane, The $100 Billion Dollar Question (available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2010/speech433.pdf)

Banks have always kept very quiet about the possibility that depositors may lose. Moreover, this impression is backed by government!! That is, most governments offer taxpayer backed guarantees for depositors.

The message is as loud and clear as it could possibly be: YOU ARE GUARANTEED YOUR MONEY BACK. But that guarantee cannot possibly be kept without a taxpayer funded subsidy.

Conclusion: FR is either fraudulent or it needs subsidising.

There is of course a third alternative, namely that banks come clean and place “financial health warnings” on all the literature they distribute. But that is just fantasy. It’s never going to happen, particularly as governments and their electorates favour a system in which everyone has a right to a 100% safe bank account. And indeed there is a good argument for the latter, namely that it is a basic human right to have access to a 100% safe bank account.
 

Nimrod

Member
People buying things makes prices go higher - simple supply/demand. The more demand, the higher the price will be. Loans and banking make it easier for people to buy more stuff. Maybe that's why you object to it?

This is called "Easy Money"

They end up making loans that shouldn't be. Mal-Investments are made. on and on it goes, then 2008 happens.
 

Matthew Libman

BANNED
Banned
This is called "Easy Money"

They end up making loans that shouldn't be. Mal-Investments are made. on and on it goes, then 2008 happens.

I see where you are coming from, but wasn't 2008 really just a result of banks gambling with depositors' money, and creating and warehousing unhealthy pools of loans and insurance products that could not be unwound? Didn't the repeal of Glass Steagall have more to do with the crisis than the Community Reinvestment Act?

Most homeowners got stuck because the mortgage market had dried up, the buyer pool disappeared, and pricing was in free fall. Once liquidity returned to the market, prices rebounded. If the banks kept lending, pricing wouldn't have plummeted, and subprime borrowers could have sold their homes instead of losing them to the bank.

While there is no question that things were overheated pre-crash, an interest rate hike would have cooled things off. However, since banks were gambling with depositors' money and relied on cheap debt to remain profitable, higher rates would have hurt banks' investments. Raising rates simply wasn't the most lucrative option for the banks, so a controlled collapse and government bailout was the only way to "cool things off."

Instead of experiencing a short period of high rates and minor economic contraction (a la Paul Volcker's Fed of the early 1980s), we instead had a complete meltdown and Wall Street robbery.

It is important to remember that throughout this crisis, banks kept lending money to themselves to acquire discounted assets like real estate, loan pools, stocks, bonds, etc. Independent investors had no access to these cheap assets because of the credit "crunch." The banks got the benefit of depression-era pricing with boom-era interest rates and money supply.

Now, finally, the banks are slowly expanding credit to the general market so they can sell us our foreclosed homes back at a record profit. All on the backs of the US taxpayer bailout.

None dare call it a covenant.
 
Last edited:

Mocking You

New member

Previously I said an increase in the money supply does not cause inflation; that money needs to be loaned out and goods purchased. You disagreed.

Inflation is an increase in the money supply. What is done with the money is a separate matter.

Now you're changing your tune.

The Big Banks are sitting on hoards of money because the Federal Reserve is paying them interest.

No, banks are sitting on QE money because companies and people aren't taking out loans. Do you really think banks would rather make 0.5% from the Fed or make 5% on loans to corporations?
 

Matthew Libman

BANNED
Banned
Previously I said an increase in the money supply does not cause inflation; that money needs to be loaned out and goods purchased. You disagreed.




Now you're changing your tune.

I think it depends what is done with the money. So long as the use of the funds creates value, there shouldn't be inflation. Printing money to fund an oil boom, gold rush, or technological advancements shouldn't cause inflation.

Printing money for bad investments, social programs, debt repayment, and general human stupidity will cause inflation, IMAO.
 

Mocking You

New member
I think it depends what is done with the money. So long as the use of the funds creates value, there shouldn't be inflation. Printing money to fund an oil boom, gold rush, or technological advancements shouldn't cause inflation.

Printing money for bad investments, social programs, debt repayment, and general human stupidity will cause inflation, IMAO.

You've got it backwards. Check out the price of housing in western North Dakota, for example. They're in an oil boom and prices are through the roof.

How does someone print money for debt repayment?
 

Matthew Libman

BANNED
Banned
You've got it backwards. Check out the price of housing in western North Dakota, for example. They're in an oil boom and prices are through the roof.

How does someone print money for debt repayment?

Housing follows incomes. ND has a housing boom because people are making money. That is not inflation, it is economic growth.
 

kmoney

New member
Hall of Fame
What part is wrong?

The FRB is a different matter and level of complexity all together. We need to agree on the basics first before adding additional elements.

How do you think the expansion of the money supply works through FRB?
 

rexlunae

New member
What do you mean--demand their money back?

The debt that China holds is in the form of US Treasury securities of various denominations and maturations. Things such as 30 day, 60 day, 120 day, 6 month, 1 year Treasury Bills and 2 year, 3 year, 5 year, 7 year, and 10 year Treasury Notes. There are also 30 year Treasury bonds.

China cannot simply bluster into the US Treasury and demand that they get full and immediate payment for these securities. The procedure for redeeming them is clearly spelled out.

Another thing to note: China only holds about 7% of the total US debt. It's a lot, but it's not that much. And they hold it because it's a solid investment, not because it gives them any control over us.

http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/mfh.txt
 

kmoney

New member
Hall of Fame
Primarily by exchanging cash for US treasuries. The reverse is also true, selling US treasuries to soak up cash.

Just to reference wiki...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking

Fractional-reserve banking is the practice whereby a bank takes in deposits, creates credit or makes loans, and holds reserves (to satisfy demands for withdrawals) that are less than the amount of its customers' deposits. Reserves are held at the bank as currency, or as deposits in the bank's accounts at the central bank. Because bank deposits are usually considered money in their own right, fractional-reserve banking permits the money supply to grow beyond the amount of the underlying reserves of base money originally created by the central bank.[1][2]

There are some other sections about expansion of the supply without mention of exchanges of treasuries. How do you think this all ties together?
 
Top