way 2 go
Well-known member
.https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/reckless-saturday-october-14-2023
...
But all we have to go on is media, which is packed with official and amateur propaganda, rumor, innuendo, hot takes, overreactions, and simple errors.
Having issued those disclaimers, since many have asked, I will tell you what I think.
I think Israel may be rushing into a horrible mistake. I think Gaza could be a trap. I base this on two unarguable facts. First, while some quibble around the edges about the extent of the atrocity, Hamas’s furious and morally inexcusable attack was clearly designed to inflame Israelis’ rage and elicit the full spectrum of negative emotion, and to create massive political and moral pressure to force Israel’s government to act fast.
In legal strategy, when an opponent pushes you to act fast, it’s generally because they don’t want you thinking too hard about your next move, and they are hoping you’ll make a mistake. Usually it signals a trap.
The second red flag is Hamas’ unaccountably-high level of intelligence, planning, organization, and execution. Many believe that a major state must also be involved. Obvious candidates include Russia, Iran, and even China. Whoever it is must also have predicted and planned for how Israel would respond. It is impossible to believe the plan somehow stops at Gaza’s border. It looks a lot like they wanted to draw Israel in to Gaza on the ground.
Not only does it smell like a trap, but the certain cost in harms to Palestinian civilians and the predictable loss of Israeli soldiers fighting in the Gaza rubble will be enormous in a ground action, and maybe ultimately unaffordable. Israel has a clear moral imperative to defend itself, but everyone seems to agree there is a lot more going on here than meets the eye.
Based on limited and unreliable information, that’s what I think. Hopefully cool heads will prevail. We will probably find out sooner rather than later.
...
But all we have to go on is media, which is packed with official and amateur propaganda, rumor, innuendo, hot takes, overreactions, and simple errors.
Having issued those disclaimers, since many have asked, I will tell you what I think.
I think Israel may be rushing into a horrible mistake. I think Gaza could be a trap. I base this on two unarguable facts. First, while some quibble around the edges about the extent of the atrocity, Hamas’s furious and morally inexcusable attack was clearly designed to inflame Israelis’ rage and elicit the full spectrum of negative emotion, and to create massive political and moral pressure to force Israel’s government to act fast.
In legal strategy, when an opponent pushes you to act fast, it’s generally because they don’t want you thinking too hard about your next move, and they are hoping you’ll make a mistake. Usually it signals a trap.
The second red flag is Hamas’ unaccountably-high level of intelligence, planning, organization, and execution. Many believe that a major state must also be involved. Obvious candidates include Russia, Iran, and even China. Whoever it is must also have predicted and planned for how Israel would respond. It is impossible to believe the plan somehow stops at Gaza’s border. It looks a lot like they wanted to draw Israel in to Gaza on the ground.
Not only does it smell like a trap, but the certain cost in harms to Palestinian civilians and the predictable loss of Israeli soldiers fighting in the Gaza rubble will be enormous in a ground action, and maybe ultimately unaffordable. Israel has a clear moral imperative to defend itself, but everyone seems to agree there is a lot more going on here than meets the eye.
Based on limited and unreliable information, that’s what I think. Hopefully cool heads will prevail. We will probably find out sooner rather than later.
