Why Third Party Presidential Bids Go Nowhere

[The Berean]

I've always wondered why third party presidential bids are never serious threats. This FiveThirtyEight article delved into the reasons.


America Isn’t Really Set Up For Third-Party Presidential Bids

What we’re seeing play out is a concept known in political science as Duverger’s Law, or the idea that in two-party political systems, voters are loath to “waste” their votes on a third-party candidate unlikely to win.2 And while this “law” doesn’t entirely hold up in other countries, it remains very true in the U.S.

 

[Kit the Coyote]

Yep, and the two big boys do everything they can to ensure it stays that way.

 

[ok doser]

I've always wondered why third party presidential bids are never serious threats. This FiveThirtyEight article delved into the reasons.


America Isn’t Really Set Up For Third-Party Presidential Bids

What we’re seeing play out is a concept known in political science as Duverger’s Law, or the idea that in two-party political systems, voters are loath to “waste” their votes on a third-party candidate unlikely to win.2 And while this “law” doesn’t entirely hold up in other countries, it remains very true in the U.S.

Canada has a perennial debate about a similar matter - they are a parliamentary system, but they're set up as a winner-take-all or first past the post - like our system this leads to underrepresention of minority viewpoints

they often give serious consideration to changing to a proportional representation system, like Holland has - leads to better representation, but usually a leading party without a majority mandate, which forces them to make coalition governments - those usually work well in good times, but often unravel in times of difficulty, which leads to some epic political theater

 

[The Berean]

I wonder how a "coalition government" would function in the US? :think:

 

[Idolater]

I see one party (Democrats), and everybody who isn't 100% on board with the Democrat party, is independent /non-Democrats (same thing). The more realistic /pragmatic ones, are Republicans, because of the already existing election /campaign infrastructure; and the ones who will virtually never be elected, instead identify as Independents or some other "third party."

My evidence for this view is that the Democrats virtually always vote in lock step, 'along party lines,' but there's almost always a few Republicans who vote with the Democrats on this or that issue. The reverse is virtually unheard of. This means that independent officials are Republicans, otherwise Republicans would always vote together as the Democrats do, but they don't---they vote like independents, sometimes they agree, sometimes they don't.

iow Ralph Nader and Jill Stein types, and other weird third party candidates, should take a cue from President Trump (and to a lesser extent Ron Paul), and become Republicans, so that they get a fair national showing, and give themselves a better chance of being elected.

The Republican party is a bigger tent, and really is the more American party, if you believe that people with divergent political views (i.e. those not in accordance with the Democrat agenda /narrative) ought to have an equal chance of being elected to office as do Democrats.